South Korea to re-start anti-North Korean broadcasts to the North

Isnt it time this nonsense stopped, just start shooting and get it over and done with.

I personally think that if push came to shove that it is a more likely scenario that China would invade the North to prevent having a US satellite on its borders.

But on the whole I don't think it is viable to have a rogue nation doing what it wants in the region, SK is far better off taking the hit and finishing the war once and for all.

Regardless of the manner in which it re-ignites, there shall be many innocents slaughtered. Something that has never bothered world leaders before when they choose to start these fires of hatred.

You may very well be correct in your assessment Monty, I just dread the thought of another generation of orphans. All because we haven't evolved far enough yet as a species, to figure out how to live on this marble together.

Peace please!

J

I believe China fears the refugee problem that shall arise if that war reignites. If we want China to reign in that little fat f#^k, we should do as Monty says and call the North's bluff. That will get China on the correct heading post haste. I also believe the last thing China wants to see is an American satellite country right at their doorstep, which is what they'll have if we fight that war again. As in the first iteration of this conflict, the North Koreans can hardly be expected to win and the Chinese can not afford to intervene with their army again as it would wreck their position in the world for years to come. Maybe even send their economy in the tank and cause unrest within. The playbook that worked for the North in 1950's is outdated today and they will be hard pressed to maintain their existence in the current environment.   

13th,

In normal situations I'd agree you will notice an increase in unit activity to the front.
But the North already has 2 of its best army corps nar the DMZ......
They can move out in a couple of hours.

A far greater risk to the south, and I think thats the only major danger are the norths 70.000 commandoforces.
They can strike and cause havoc at major comms centres, airbases and military HQs as well as civilian sites and industrial complexes.
You need an incredible amount of troops to guard all those targets, which is practically impossible.

I think that policy is a recipe for disaster, my personal belief is that if the South wants to prevent a disaster in terms of loss of civilian life it has to get over the border and about 50km north of the start line as soon as possible to take NK artillery out of the picture which basically means a first strike.

If is was me I make it very clear that the next "provocation" will bring a response and the next time a NK border guard so much as pokes a face at a SK one leap the border and get on with it before they have a chance to react, my belief is that it will be a Gulf War 1 with the bulk of the NK military simply giving up in return for a meal and the luxury of not being shot for having an opinion.

In the short term however I would also make it very clear to the Chinese that are expected to bring NK into line before they find a new flag going up at the border posts, again I think a strong stance will pay off.

Anyway back to the ship sinking incident:

Korea torpedo attack leaves no easy options
Page last updated at 13:09 GMT, Thursday, 20 May 2010 14:09 UK
By Paul Reynolds

An international inquiry concluded there was overwhelming evidence the ship had been sunk by a North Korean torpedo
There are no easy options for South Korea - or the United States - after an international investigation group reported that a North Korean torpedo sunk the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan in March.

Military action is out - it carries with it the risk that the North would retaliate and might even launch action of its own.

North Korea has a million-strong army, 18,000 artillery pieces and possibly useable nuclear weapons.

Sanctions have limited impact on the North. It is already ignoring UN sanctions restricting trade in military equipment and luxury goods.

It manages to keep going with Chinese help and that is unlikely to be withdrawn.

It might be that the South is left to make a lot of diplomatic noise, with American echoes.

In the end it might have to accept that the lesser of two evils is to make its factual case, protest, gain international support, limit its own dealings with North Korea and then continue to build up its forces for the future.

The China dimension
The sinking of the Cheonan is not the first incident along the line of the disputed maritime boundary off the west coast.

NORTH KOREAN ATTACKS

Jan 1967 - attacks South Korean warship near border, killing 39 sailors
Jan 1968 - commandos storm presidential palace in Seoul in a failed attempt to kill President Park Chung-hee
Jan 1968 - captures USS Pueblo - one crew member dies and 82 held hostage for 11 months
Dec 1969 - hijacks South Korean airliner taking dozens of passengers hostage
Oct 1983 - bombs hotel in Rangoon, Burma in failed attempt to kill South Korean President Chun Doo-hwan - 21 people die
Nov 1987 - bombs South Korean airliner, killing 115
Sept 1996 - sub carrying 26 troops disabled off South - some land in South sparking deadly manhunt
Mar 2010 - torpedoes Cheonan warship, 46 sailors killed

How the ship was sunk
None has led to outright war and there is therefore reason to think that this time as well, the South will have to live with the loss, unless it wants to risk a major conflict.

The investigation's findings have thrown the issue into the lap of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who happens to be arriving in Beijing this weekend with a huge American delegation to discuss the wider relationship between the US and China.

It is possible that the US, pressed by South Korea, will favour a Security Council meeting and, if such a meeting is to have any traction, China's support will be needed.

And beyond that, if new sanctions are to be imposed, China will have to support them as well, being a veto-holding member of the Council.

Yet China usually prefers to deal with North Korea on a more discreet basis (it recently welcomed North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il to Beijing) and was slow even to express sympathy for the loss of South Korean sailors.

It only comes out against the North if Pyongyang does something with wide international ramifications, notably its nuclear testing.

Suspended talks
The US might, at this moment, be more concerned to keep Chinese support for sanctions against Iran - agreed by the major Security Council powers this week - than to use its diplomatic credit up in seeking further sanctions on North Korea.

Co-head of investigation team, Yoon Duk-yong: "Both sections at the failure point were bent upward"
The prospects for settling the disputed maritime border are about as distant as the prospects for getting North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons capability. Talks about the latter are currently in suspension.

North and South Korea did nearly come to a maritime modus vivendi in 2007 in talks involving the then South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun.

The idea was to concentrate on fishing - and fishing is a major North Korean concern in the disputed waters as its fishermen seek the south-migrating blue-crab from June to September.

But it came to nothing and the North clearly remains ready and willing to defend its interests there, with the South determined to uphold its position as well.

Some international experts think that what is known as the Northern Limit Line, drawn by the UN after the Korean war, should be moved in North Korea's favour, since the old international three-mile maritime limit has made way for 12.

But given the overall state of relations between North and South, there are no realistic hopes of an agreement.

There may well be further incidents ahead.

BBC News - Korea torpedo attack leaves no easy options

Here is a link to the report on the action from the BBC...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/20_05_10jigreport.pdf

I am wondering if the best course of action is not to respond in kind, sink a NK ship and pretend it wasn't you.

Yes, two can play that game. Though I would target a submarine to make this point.

We've either sank or heavily damaged plenty of their stuff in the past as it is.
Right now four Shark (Sang-o) class midget subs are unaccounted for in North Korea.  They've been used to infiltrate Special Forces into South Korean territory in the past in addition to the sinking of the RoKS Cheonan.

Yes, the South Korean military has a very large artillery force.  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know why.