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Author Topic: Iran  (Read 1917 times)
Koen
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« on: 14 February 2009, 13:39:30 »
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Obama and his government opened up towards Iran.

Iran decided, after some tough-talk, to respond in the same manner and are willing to open discussions with the US government.

What do you think of this news?

Why?
1.Hidden agendas from both parties?
2.How much change in succes do you give them?
3.Will it eventually come to a meeting?
4.Will Obama and Ahmadinejad be present?
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Rattler
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« Reply #1 on: 14 February 2009, 20:31:33 »
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Obama and his government opened up towards Iran.

Iran decided, after some tough-talk, to respond in the same manner and are willing to open discussions with the US government.

What do you think of this news?

1. Why?
2. Hidden agendas from both parties?
3. How much change in succes do you give them?
4. Will it eventually come to a meeting?
5. Will Obama and Ahmadinejad be present?


I have taken the liberty to number your questions in the quote to more easily relay my thoughts, hope you won´t have me court martialled instantly... (it is "San Valentine"  Grijns)

My takes:

Generally: Good news, about time that US starts talking to ppl again, whatever side they come from...

1. Many aspects:

a) (as stated above) about time that US starts talking to ppl again, whatever side they come from, and Iran is one example (as would be Cuba or NK) where you can easily showcase change of doctrine (get away from the "axis of evil"/With us or against us" black and white painting)

b) US simply could not sustain another major conflict (if it was not an all out WWII type of thingy), not by solds numbers nor by money aspects: 200k US solds deployed = 200k more in training for relieve and yet another 200k on R+R, that is a total of 60kk. How many did the US have again, incl NG? 1M w/o counting old age reserves? So: Half of them is out of business already, it would be a big trap to leave hoome unguarded

c) Nukes: Unlike Iraq Iran is probably capable to shortly develop at least low tech nukes (same as NK already has), which will make a decision to go to war more difficult (while not able to hit US directly, Israel would make a nice place to drop a nuke an hurt US interests)

d) Having a strong Iran (w/ or w/o nukes) in the area could actually well be *in* the US interests if they somehow agree to excert stabilisation of the region and take over a Sheriff job (maybe in exchange of becoming recognized as "Super Power" like Pakistan or India and including big economical rewards?) This might be *well* in Iran interest, they could stop India short, take over control over more oil and it is really (realistically) in their hands to stop fueling most of the terrorist organizations out there.

2. Why not? Everybody has, but those mentioned above would be sufficient

3. 50/50

4. Sure (think Gorbatchev and his Perestroika, we now have the same on the US side, why not on the Iranian side?)

5. If they are still alive then, yes. But, as with Perestroika, we are not talking 2 yrs here (all meetings initially will take place on a much lower level and the hurdles - especially cultural - to overcome are much higher: In the Cold War at least the opponent was alway thought to be calculable and proefessional, not sure both side politicians will apply those adjectives unto either side until a fairly long time in the future)

Rattler
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sarahjohn63
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« Reply #2 on: 15 July 2010, 06:39:27 »
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It is very good news about US. US government starts talking to people again about war. Iran is one example which you can easily showcase change of get way with Uniited States or other country.
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