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Author Topic: Losing the Pirate War?  (Read 10257 times)
Rattler
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« on: 25 January 2011, 08:29:07 »
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Due to a discussion about the "great successes" of ships taken back I posted this article at another forum, hope you allow the cross-post:

Quote from: Atasas;593981
still a lot to do, but appears, that soon, direction as where it is heading to will change, so pirate backers left to be squeezed for better effect


Nope, the exact opposite is true:

During 2010 the pirate threat, # of attacks, held hulls, hostages and - most important - the ransoms achieved have increased significantly, despite the efforts of all the security teams, ships (CTF-150, OP Atalanta) etc.

Point is, this does not get published so often as the number of successes in repelling attacks or taking back a ship by force.

This is not surprising, this is by now a true (and very profitable) industry with attractive growth rates and investment return rates (see below), and the big guys are trying to take a part in it.

Here the data:

- A total of 445 piracy incidents were recorded in 2010, an 8.5 % increase from the year before (according to International Maritime Bureau)

- Pirates kidnapped 1,181 hostages in 2010, a 12.5 % jump from 2009 (according to International Maritime Bureau)

- Pirates seized 53 vessels worldwide in 2010, an increase of 10.1 % compared to 2009 (according to International Maritime Bureau)

- Ransoms paid to Somali pirates totaled $238 million in 2010 — the worst year for piracy on record, according to the International Chamber of Commerce.

- The average payout to ransom a hijacked ship was $5.4 million last year, up from just $150,000 in 2005. (Wired magazine analyzed the Somali pirate business model in 2009.)

- Extra cost for all involved (except the pirates, of course): Insuring ships passing near piracy-prone areas costs between $460 million and $3.2 billion. Naval presence to protect merchant shipping costs another $2 billion ($).

- An international study by an US thinktank calculates the cost that piracy means for the International community on 12 Billion $ overall in 2010 (ransoms+security+ops+economic losses)

JAN 21, 2011 (data for the first 3 weeks of 2011), daily updated here:
http://www.icc-ccs.org/home/piracy-reporting-centre/piracynewsafigures

Incidents Reported for Somalia:
Total Incidents: 31
Total Hijackings: 6
Total Hostages : 136

Current vessels held by Somali pirates:
Vessels: 32
Hostages: 746

Make your own projection, thats another increase.

Dont let the (well received, but still) propaganda reports of the successes fool you, the international community is losing this war against piracy. It now seems it can only be stopped if Somalia is put straight (and Nigeria, and, and, and...), and this would be a lot cheaper according to calculations.

Ressources:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/01/arrr-pirates-take-up-to-12-billion-worth-of-booty/#more-38910

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12214905

http://www.icc-ccs.org/home/piracy-reporting-centre/imb-live-piracy-map-2010/piracy-map-2010

http://www.icc-ccs.org/home/piracy-reporting-centre/piracynewsafigures

Rattler
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MontyB
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« Reply #1 on: 25 January 2011, 10:01:42 »
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You know I am tired of this "we have to fix Somalia" nonsense, it seems there is a view that it is the responsibility of the West to rebuild every corrupt, drug addled retarded nation on the face of the earth simply by pumping money into it because should we actually go in there to fix it both the locals there and at home will start bitching a whinging that we are being imperialist.

Here is a thought lets:
A) Stop paying ransoms, anyone stupid enough to go sailing around the Gulf of Aden deserves all they get in my opinion.
B) Start arming with trained security personnel any ship that wants to pay for security in the region.
C) Sink every pirate vessel, kill every pirate aboard these ships and blast the snot out of every known anchorage of these pirates.

Rather than throw good money after bad in trying to fix that basket case of a country, cut it off from the world and put that money into the navies of the world to blockade the place and destroy the pirates because I will bet a sizable chunk of change that once these people discover that they will make no money from being a pirate and about the only thing they will gain is a watery death at the hands of point defense system I think you will see a rapid decline in piracy.

/Rantoff.
Smiley
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stoffel
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« Reply #2 on: 25 January 2011, 13:04:43 »
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B isnt a possibility, maritime laws forbid armed men on ships.........aint it good to have laws Smiley
You are right thought, still there are people willing to risk their lives to sail alone in that area.
Shipping through that area shouldnt be allowed if you dont want to follow in a convoi.
A convoi can be easily protected.
And, the pirates should be threathened as the Russians did, sink them at once.
Our navy took some prisoners , they got sentenced to jail and when they get out they can ask for political asylum...... reddevil

Its a crazy world  hdbng
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« Reply #3 on: 25 January 2011, 18:43:50 »
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yes, sailing through those waters is a calculated risk but imagine...

YOU are the sailor
YOU are working for the last 5 years on the same vessel/boat/ship
YOUR vessel/boat/ship is leaving next week for a trip to Azia

now what?

are you going to be informed about the coordinates and line you're be sailing?
what if you do and it seems you'll be sailing pirate seas... will you tell them (the captain, the company) that they're total lunatics?
WILL YOU?

so no ransom for you?
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Rattler
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« Reply #4 on: 25 January 2011, 20:11:32 »
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You know I am tired of this "we have to fix Somalia" nonsense, it seems there is a view that it is the responsibility of the West to rebuild every corrupt, drug addled retarded nation on the face of the earth simply by pumping money into it because should we actually go in there to fix it both the locals there and at home will start bitching a whinging that we are being imperialist.

While you are probably right, its considered by serious think tanks ti be ***WAY*** cheaper than what we are doingnow or what you propose, both economically as well as mediatically (2nd with a big influence on first)


B isnt a possibility, maritime laws forbid armed men on ships.........aint it good to have laws Smiley



Wrong.

This ban was lifted about a year ago, since this date *all* Spanish ships have a "Security team" of 4 on board, armed with small arms, SMGs and a cal .50 MG



Problem i s that for the Spanish Tuna fishing fleet of 490 ships in the Gulf of Aden this effort is eating up all the gains, in total it is more expensive than 10x the ransoms paid so far.

Last, NOTE that serious "western" (US, UK, Russia) companies are involved in the negotiations, laundering of ransoms, etc.

As a cynic I bet they will not let this go and will excert all pressure that the status quo wont change: More ransoms, more comissions.

Rattler
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« Reply #5 on: 25 January 2011, 20:18:51 »
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Companies have to be forces to sail in convoys, else no protection, no soldiers risking their live to save them and so on.
No insurance too.
Companies that forces their personell to violate such rules should be trialled and closed down.
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« Reply #6 on: 25 January 2011, 20:30:30 »
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Problem is, they are not sailing as in "travelling", they "work" there, more or less - on a large scale - STATIONARY, i.e. they are there 8 month a year, because thats where atm the most tuna is that is not claimed by a government as to be in national waters (as Somalia has none).

Fishing in convois is not considered sufficently effective, to formulate it diplomatically, lateral distance between vessels needs to be of twice the size of the net, around 200 km, longitudinal distance 50 km minimum. With 450+ ships working there in average (just from Spain, add the same for France and Germany) this makes for a huge area that cannot safely be covered by naval forces. Hence the "Security Teams" onboard every trawler.

BTW we are not talking soldiers here, the "Security Teams" are private and paid by the fishing companies (1500 Euros weekly per man = 6000 weekly per vessel). In comparison the sailors that work on those boats (mainly from Sierra Leone, 85%) earn 52 Euros monthly (and hence are most willing to join up with the pirates once boarded).


Surprise, surprise, isnt capitalism wonderful?  champ

Rattler

P.S.: Why I know all this? Because here its a very open public and mediatic discussion, especially after the "Alkrana" disaster.

Companies have to be forces to sail in convoys, else no protection, no soldiers risking their live to save them and so on.
No insurance too.
Companies that forces their personell to violate such rules should be trialled and closed down.

« Last Edit: 25 January 2011, 20:43:34 by Rattler, Reason: Added P.S. » Logged

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« Reply #7 on: 25 January 2011, 21:00:48 »
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BTW we are not talking soldiers here, the "Security Teams" are private and paid by the fishing companies (1500 Euros weekly per man = 6000 weekly per vessel). In comparison the sailors that work on those boats (mainly from Sierra Leone, 85%) earn 52 Euros monthly (and hence are most willing to join up with the pirates once boarded).

Simply not allowed by Dutch law......... hdbng
For that money I would go with them to....no Pirate comes close to the boat I sail on with me behind a .50 cal, or a MAG Smiley
Cool turkey pirateshooting. Cool
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« Reply #8 on: 25 January 2011, 21:05:39 »
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You know I am tired of this "we have to fix Somalia" nonsense, it seems there is a view that it is the responsibility of the West to rebuild every corrupt, drug addled retarded nation on the face of the earth simply by pumping money into it because should we actually go in there to fix it both the locals there and at home will start bitching a whinging that we are being imperialist.

 While you are probably right, its considered by serious think tanks ti be ***WAY*** cheaper than what we are doingnow or what you propose, both economically as well as mediatically (2nd with a big influence on first)

Rattler


The problem is that it is the very same "Think Tanks" that have put us in these situations time after time perhaps we should drop them on Somalia instead of cash.

The reason you can not fix Somalia is has nothing to do with cash or infrastructure, they had all those things in 1980 and decided that AK47s and RPGS were more fun the reason Somalia is a basket case is because the people there do not want "civilisation" enough to do it for themselves they want the West to keep dumping food, money and ammunition on their doorstep and go away it is basically a petting zoo for psychotics.

I will stick by my original rant because quite frankly I am sick of Africa as a whole, once you get south of the Mediterranean coast countries there isn't a single African nation that isn't a giant basket case and I would sooner pay an extra $20 to supply bullets to an invading army than give it to a charity to feed these nut jobs.

As the old joke goes, 1984 Bandaid wanted to feed 3 million starving Africans, 2004 they wanted to feed 30 million starving Africans what exactly is all this aid achieving?
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« Reply #9 on: 25 January 2011, 21:11:16 »
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Mentally stable and trained people can apply (nationality not important, Spanish required, 4 weeks training by Spanish Army before) here: http://www.informacion-empresas.com/Empresa_SEGUR-IBERICA.html

As you can see they are welcome: In DEC they trained another 25 and are searching for applicants:

http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=es&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=es&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fm.orange.es%2Factualidad%2Fnacional%2Fdefensa-formara-otros-25-agentes-seguridad-privada-para-atuneros-del-indico.html

Rattler

BTW we are not talking soldiers here, the "Security Teams" are private and paid by the fishing companies (1500 Euros weekly per man = 6000 weekly per vessel). In comparison the sailors that work on those boats (mainly from Sierra Leone, 85%) earn 52 Euros monthly (and hence are most willing to join up with the pirates once boarded).

Simply not allowed by Dutch law......... hdbng
For that money I would go with them to....no Pirate comes close to the boat I sail on with me behind a .50 cal, or a MAG Smiley
Cool turkey pirateshooting. Cool

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« Reply #10 on: 25 January 2011, 21:43:07 »
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You mean speaking Spanish?
And training...does 24 years Dutch army service and marksman on the Minimi/Mag counts?

Wanda wasnt to happy when I brought this up, and certainly not when she read your last post Knipoog
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« Reply #11 on: 25 January 2011, 21:46:11 »
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Spanish "language" required.

Training is obligatory, even for ex soldiers. There is stuff to learn about the pirates, their maneuvers, the tuna fishing and the options of maneuver of the friendly vessel in different situations.

AFAIK weapons training is just a week, for the cal .50 (state license required by law for private personell using a military weapon, no matter what their background).

Here a vid of one of the courses (there are 4, search on the tube by using roman numbers)

III Curso de Protección Marítima


Rattler

You mean speaking Spanish?
And training...does 24 years Dutch army service and marksman on the Minimi/Mag counts?

Wanda wasnt to happy when I brought this up, and certainly not when she read your last post Knipoog

« Last Edit: 25 January 2011, 21:59:43 by Rattler, Reason: Added vid » Logged

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« Reply #12 on: 25 January 2011, 22:07:57 »
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I am pretty sure Dutch laws prohibit the usage of military arms by civilians.
They get mad here when you try to buy an UZI, let alone a 50 cal Smiley

But its payed well, what about you Matt?
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« Reply #13 on: 25 January 2011, 22:10:25 »
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too old: max 35

does not matter if youre Dutch for those private teams.

Rattler
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« Reply #14 on: 25 January 2011, 22:11:54 »
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I am pretty sure Dutch laws prohibit the usage of military arms by civilians.
They get mad here when you try to buy an UZI, let alone a 50 cal Smiley

But its payed well, what about you Matt?


Just tell them you are renting it then.
Smiley
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« Reply #15 on: 25 January 2011, 22:14:17 »
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hmmm, I am 42 Bedroefd waa waa waa
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« Reply #16 on: 25 January 2011, 22:19:50 »
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ROFL.... Smiley

We all were young, once...

Age has advantages also, you will see... Smiley

Like, ehm..., er..., uh... yes, EXPERIENCE!

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« Reply #17 on: 10 February 2011, 20:11:15 »
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Back to the title:

Day before yesterday and yesterday Pirates hit on some heavy stuff, lots of ransom guaranteed: South Korea bound oil tanker "Irene SL" today as it sailed through the Arabian Sea near Oman, and another oil tanker, the Italian-owned "Savina Caylyn", one day earlier 800 miles off the coast of Somalia.

Two tankers, the Italian with $63 million worth of oil and the Irene SL hauling about $200 million worth of cargo, estimated ransom request a new record 20 million $ total.

Reason to party for them, it will be the start of a fantastic year for pirates economically (the "high season" starts in May, after the monsoons).

Remember I wrote this becomes a buisness so interesting that the biggies will want a part of it?

Well they can now, last year the pirates have gone stock exchange:

Quote
The gangs have made tens of millions of dollars from ransoms and a deployment by foreign navies in the area has only appeared to drive the attackers to hunt further from shore.

It is a lucrative business that has drawn financiers from the Somali diaspora and other nations -- and now the gangs in Haradheere have set up an exchange to manage their investments.


Really interesting article, and also an interesting business opportunity if you have e.g. an RPG or the money for one to spare:

Quote
Piracy investor Sahra Ibrahim, a 22-year-old divorcee, was lined up with others waiting for her cut of a ransom pay-out after one of the gangs freed a Spanish tuna fishing vessel.

"I am waiting for my share after I contributed a rocket-propelled grenade for the operation," she said, adding that she got the weapon from her ex-husband in alimony (ROFL, R.).

"I am really happy and lucky. I have made $75,000 in only 38 days since I joined the 'company'."


With such big money involved I find it hard to believe we will win this, it will be useless and costly like the war on cocain: All people in the food chain will participate and we pay it all, the ransoms as well as the counter piracy efforts, the comissions on the weapons involved and the bribes for all involved, with our tax money.

And whereas at least in theory we could take the money out of the cocain business (e.g. by legalizing it), we have no such means for the pirate situation, the big business of the 21st century for time to come.

Rattler
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« Reply #18 on: 12 February 2011, 19:48:47 »
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In this months "Military Technology" there's a small item about the marines and SF units from South Koreas destroyer Choi Young.
They liberated the crew (21) of the oiltanker 'SAMHO JEWELRY' which was captured by pirates in the Indian Ocean.
All hostages were liberated, none of the 8 pirates survived.
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« Reply #19 on: 12 February 2011, 20:24:18 »
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Yep, read that today as well.

What do you think will happen (*you* are one of the people here refering to common sense)?

I tell you: Court Martial. Probable sentence: 10 yrs+, hard labour.

They just skipped some high ranking politician or comapny magnate from his 5% commission on the issue, no sailor can survive such a slip legally...

Please, keep us updated.

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